The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has warned that most parts of the country are likely to experience near-average to below-average rainfall in December 2025, with the northeastern and arid regions expected to face particularly dry conditions.
The warning follows an unusually dry November, which saw significant rainfall deficits across much of the country, including Lamu, Lodwar, Mandera, Marsabit, and several central and coastal stations.
“The rainfall distribution, both in time and space, is expected to be generally poor with prolonged dry spells,” the agency said.
The weatherman forecast indicates that the short rains (October–December) are likely to end between the first and fourth weeks of December across many regions.
While southeastern lowlands and some highland areas may receive occasional rainfall early in the month, most other areas will remain dry.
“Episodes of heavy rainfall are still likely to occur in some parts of the country during this period, particularly in the southeastern lowlands,” the agency added.
Looking ahead to December 2025 through February 2026, the KMD predicts generally sunny and dry conditions nationwide. Only a few areas, including the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, the South Rift Valley, the southeastern lowlands, and coastal regions, may see intermittent rains.
Northern and arid regions, meanwhile, are expected to remain largely dry. “Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across the entire country,” the KMD said, noting that prolonged heat could increase both daytime highs and nighttime lows.
The department highlighted the potential impact of the dry conditions on agriculture, water resources, and public health.
Reduced rainfall in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) may limit soil moisture, affecting crop growth and pasture availability.
Farmers are urged to implement water conservation practices, such as mulching, while livestock producers should prepare for potential fodder and water shortages. In areas with limited rainfall, communities are encouraged to harvest water and use it efficiently.
KMD also cautioned about isolated heavy rains that may cause localised flooding, as well as lightning strikes in highland areas. Warmer and drier conditions may heighten the risk of heat stress, vector-borne diseases, and respiratory illnesses.
“Public health advisories should emphasise proper hydration, safe food handling, and vector control measures such as mosquito net use and environmental sanitation,” the agency said.
